India's goal setting is ambitious. NITI Aayog’s approach paper sets an audacious goal of increasing India’s economy to 30 trillion US dollars by 2047, the centenary of India’s Independence, with a per capita income of around 18,000 USD. This would imply increasing the GDP from 3.36 trillion USD to 30 trillion USD and increasing per capita income from 2,392 USD to 18,000 USD. The same paper acknowledges that 7-10% sustained growth for two to three decades would be needed to move from the middle-income to high-income status, which very few countries have accomplished.
Achieving this goal would require significant breakthroughs in research and technology. Even looking at the achievement of the last 25 years, from 1997 to 2022, India has achieved an increase of around 369% from around 512.84 USD to 2,511.66 USD. It would need a significant technology leapfrog to reach 18,000 USD. India’s goal of Viksit Bharat requires research and innovation.
The number that does not move
The Economic Survey 2025-26 reports India’s gross expenditure on R&D at 0.64 per cent of GDP. Other data from the Department of Science and Technology, more recent and presented to the Parliament in July 2026, reports an expenditure of Rs. 2.45 lakh crores in 2023-24 at 0.84 per cent of GDP, which is higher than the 0.82 per cent reported for the previous year. The difference in the two sets of figures is due to differences in the vintage of the data and the methods employed. The article should acknowledge this.
Either way, India's total expenditure on research is less than 1 per cent of GDP. In its series, the DST has indicated that in 2021-22, total expenditure was 0.83 per cent of GDP for the first time since 2009-10. For over a decade, the Indian economy witnessed growth without an increase in the intensity of research.
The comparison table
People are the second gap. About 260 full-time-equivalent researchers were reported for India (2020 data); South Korea reported about 9,082 and Singapore about 7,426 (2021 data) researchers per million, according to Nature. A secondary source reports the global average at 1,198, the US at 4,452 and China at 1,307.
Who pays: a change worth watching
The survey says that in India, businesses only finance about 41% of R&D, while the world's leaders put the burden on businesses. Newer figures from the DST say that in 2023-24, the industry's share rose to 51.8%, and business finance of R&D rose for the first time above government. If that is the case, then that would be the most encouraging structural change in the data. The shift in the numbers happened while the total (R&D funding in India) stayed below 1% of the GDP, so the catch-up by the private sector is from a low public base, and not the other way around.
The paradox: volume without depth
Research is flourishing in India. In 2021, India had the third highest number of scholarly publications, up from the seventh highest in 2010. Indian institutions in the QS World University Rankings increased from 11 in 2015 to 54 in 2022. India has nearly 1.10 lakh patent filings in 2024-25, 62% filed by residents. The Indian Patent office ranks 6th in 2021 among residency filing offices.
Many of these improvements are legitimate. These are improvements in outputs, not improvements in frontier capabilities. One source suggests that India, with about 17.5% of the world’s population, contributes only about 3% to the world’s research. Frontier technologies would point to where the disparity is. Even with an approval of Rs. 1.6 lakh crore for the India Semiconductor Mission, we still don’t have a commercial Fab at 28nm or below, thus, advanced logic chips are still imported.
What Korea and China tell us
Unlike many other developing countries, South Korea didn’t wait until it became wealthy before investing in research. In fact, the country had an R&D intensity of about 2.3% in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It spends about 5% today. China had an R&D intensity of about 2.0% in the late 1990s and early 2000s and is at about 2.4% today. However, China is still a middle-income country. As we can see, Research and Development spending is normally spent prior to income gains and helps produce the income gains.
India is the complete opposite from South Korea and China. India is a lower-middle-income country still classified as such with a GNI per capita of $2,940. It spends very little on research and development compared to South Korea and China at similar economic levels.
The moving finish line
The $18,000 goal is generous. In 2023, the World Bank’s threshold for high-income countries was at $14,005. However, one analysis says that for high-income countries to grow at 2% a year, the threshold would go up to about $22,506 by 2047. India’s goal is to keep running.
What the deficit costs, in numbers
Suppose we take the $30 trillion goal seriously. Currently, R&D spending is at 0.84% of GDP. At that rate, R&D spending would be around $252 billion in 2047. If India decides to up that to 2% of GDP, which the NITI Aayog also urges, R&D spending would be about $600 billion by 2047. The choice India would be making is the lack of roughly $350 billion in knowledge to enhance the economy to what India wishes it to be.
What would change the picture
- According to NITI Aayog, 2% of GDP on R&D is recommended. No budgetary allocation has been done to achieve it.
- Make corporate R&D expenditure eligible for tax credit and encourage development of Intellectual Property.
- Fund people not projects. Adequate scientific and research human resources are essential to propel research in frontier areas. ANRF Act of 2023 establishing Anusandhan National Research Foundation, is in right direction. Its performance will be judged by its ability to direct funds to Universities with research backlogs, particularly in the science and technology sectors.
- Evaluate outcomes. India has been deceiving itself by focusing on publications and patents. India should focus on building frontier technologies and assess its performance based on that.
Conclusion
Viksit Bharat celebrates a country defined by its income. The route celebrates its knowledge. A country that allocates research spending at less than 1% of its GDP, and has a fraction of the researchers as its rivals in Asia, is seeking its economy to make a leap rather than a climb. It is a goal, a vision, that is larger than life; blurred by a major absence. All it takes to remove the absence is the setting of a number, date and a budget.
References
- NITI Aayog, Vision for Viksit Bharat @ 2047: An Approach Paper (July 2024): $30 trillion, $18,000 per capita, 7-10% growth, $3.36 trillion and $2,392 base figures; World Bank high-income threshold $14,005 (2023).
- Economic Survey 2025-26 (reported by Business Today and Swarajya, 29 Jan 2026): GERD 0.64% of GDP; business share 41%; comparators US 3.48%, China 2.43%, South Korea 4.91%; publications rank 3rd (from 7th in 2010); QS 11 to 54.
- DST data tabled in Rajya Sabha (reported 31 July 2026): Rs 2.45 lakh crore, 0.84% of GDP in 2023-24; NITI Aayog call for 2% of GDP (May 2026).
- DST, R&D Statistics at a Glance 2025-26 (via IAS Parliament summary, Aug 2026): industry share 51.8% in 2023-24; 0.83% in 2021-22; 1.10 lakh patents in 2024-25; comparators Japan 3.3%, Israel 5%.
- Nature (2024) country profiles: researchers per million, India 260.4 (2020), South Korea 9,081.9 and Singapore 7,425.8 (2021).
- Insights on India (Dec 2025), secondary: global average 1,198, US 4,452, China 1,307; 17.5% population vs 3% research output; semiconductor fab point.
- Artha Global (Dec 2024): $22,506 threshold by 2047 under a 2% high-income growth assumption.
- Outlook Money: GNI per capita $2,940; only BRICS member still lower-middle income.
- South Korea R&D at 2.30% (2000) from a compiled academic table.